ISLA PATRIOT /4.15 AYR.

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Well here I am once again with my tip for today, Weather permitting.  I have high hopes for today's tip and this selection runs up at Ayr.I do hope I am not on a time wasting exercise like it turned out on Saturday when all my hard work was cancelled out due to adverse weather conditions.As I have mentioned before, I do not tip horses in 7 Horse fields or less.I may have a bet in such a race for myself but I would not give a tip publicly.At Ayr today ,there are only two races with fields of more than seven runners so I have chosen the 4.15 race for intense analysis.Having done so, I have settled on my namesake NW Alexander's entrant ISLA  PATRIOT, as the likely winner in this field.This is really a poor bunch of animals and it reminds me of last week when a race reviewer described the field as ' a bunch of deadwoods'.'Readers would remember that I sifted through that field of 'deadwoods' and came up with the 25/1 winner ,Hobbs Dream. Perhaps I specialize in races with 'deadwoods' in the lineup. Anyway,there is very little in the way of form on offer here so one would have to look at other factors in order to arrive at a valid conclusion.ISLA  PATRIOT's  record does not read very well having had 11 lifetime starts and being unplaced in all.However, his last start was over 3 mls at Muss. and in that race he was close up to the leaders for a long way ,only dropping away in the final four furlongs.His race before that can safely be ignored as it appeared that he and his rider  had some sort of disagreement ,causing them to part company at the first.The race before that was also over 3mls and he finished a well beaten 7th out of 8runners.He disputed the lead and ran well for a long way before fading away. He showed a tendency to jump left in that race at Muss.,which is  a right handed track.It is said that Ayr is a track that provides a searching test of stamina in rain softened conditions.ISLA PATRIOT has raced over 3mls so stamina for this particular contest is not a problem.  This is a shorter trip today on a left handed track which will be to his liking.He is able to run with the pace and with Paddy Buchanan in the saddle ,I think this Horse will put his best foot forward and give backers something to cheer on what is likely to be a very cold wintry day. Odds for this Horse currently :25/1.I expect less at the off.BET :AYR 4.15 ;ISLA PATRIOT each way.